Gambler’s Fallacy in New Zealand – Sports Betting Guide
Established by Jacob Bernoulli as far back as the 17th century, The Law of Large Numbers show that events with a larger sample, such as a coin toss, are more likely to represent true probability.
Today, bettors in New Zealand and all over the rest of the world continue to struggle with this concept a good 400 years on. It is for this reason that it has now been dubbed The Gambler’s Fallacy, a mistake that could effectively be a rather costly one.
The Law of Large Numbers
A coin toss is actually the example that Bernoulli used as heads and tails both have a 50% chance of winning. He calculated that as the number of tosses increases, the percentage of results of either heads or tails will get closer to 50%, while at the same time the difference between the number of heads or tails that are thrown also gets bigger.
However, it is the second part the theory that most people have an issue understanding, which is ultimately what has led it to be referred to as the Gambler’s Fallacy. Many people believe that if a coin is tossed 9 times and it lands on heads each time that the next toss will be tails, but this is not true as there is always a 50% chance.
Bernoulli showed that as the sample of coin-tosses gets big, the distribution would even out at around 50%, but this is only in exceptionally large numbers.
Applying Distribution in Betting
Expected deviation can be applied in online betting NZ, with the most common example being in casino games such as roulette, where players mistakenly believe that sequences of odds or evens or red or black will even out in a single session.
Another example of where expected deviation is applied is a slot machine, which is essentially a random number generator with a set Return to Player. This is the reason there are many players that pump a great deal of cash into a machine in the hopes that their losing streak will be followed by a run.
When he developed his law, Bernoulli asserted that even the simplest people can understand that the bigger the sample, the bigger the chance of seeing true probability. While this may be a little harsh, the gambler’s fallacy is quite easy to understand with the Law of Large Numbers.
Sports Betting in New Zealand
When it comes to sports betting in New Zealand, there is a bit of controversy as to whether gamblers are able to beat randomness. There are many that believe there is a skill to betting, which there certainly is, however, it is the extent to which skills in wagering manifest the illusion of control that is interesting.
Another misconception in betting, players may be able to increase their knowledge and expertise but they certainly can’t predict the outcome of an Ice Hockey match, for example, as there are numerous factors that can come into play at the last minute, such as injuries